Winter_Sun_1.14100204

जाडे की धूप by सर्वेश्वर दयाल सक्सेना

I think I read this poem long time back, it’s about winter season and sunshine, by a noted Hindi poet – Sarveshwar Dayal Saxena [some of his other poems can be found here]


बहुत दिनों बाद मुझे धूप ने बुलाया

ताते जल नहा पहन श्वेत वसन आयी
खुले लान बैठ गयी दमकती लुनायी
सूरज खरगोश धवल गोद उछल आया।
बहुत दिनों बाद मुझे धूप ने बुलाया।

नभ के उद्यान-छत्र तले मेज : टीला,
पड़ा हरा फूल कढ़ा मेजपोश पीला,
वृक्ष खुली पुस्तक हर पृष्ठ फड़फड़ाया।
बहुत दिनों बाद मुझे धूप ने बुलाया।

पैरों में मखमल की जूती-सी-क्यारी,
मेघ ऊन का गोला बुनती सुकुमारी,
डोलती सलाई हिलता जल लहराया।
बहुत दिनों बाद मुझे धूप ने बुलाया।

बोली कुछ नहीं, एक कुर्सी की खाली,
हाथ बढ़ा छज्जे की साया सरकाली,
बाँह छुड़ा भागा, गिर बर्फ हुई छाया।
बहुत दिनों बाद मुझे धूप ने बुलाया।


– सर्वेश्वर दयाल सक्सेना

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sensex-crash-thumb

2010 Sensex predictions of my own!

India Inc (Indian Industry) and Congress party has very different opinions about how the country should be run. India Inc wants the market to be open, free, competitive and the growth to be fast but Congress wants the growth to be slow and steady – what they call as “inclusive growth” (like involve poorest of Indians through schemes like NREGA etc).
Clashes in these ideas and agreements / disagreements over ideas will cause the busts and booms in stock market for next few years, till the point when both party understands other very well. (which will probably never happen?)
Anyways, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced date of this year’s budget presentation to be on 26th February which led me to remember past budget presentations and market reactions from the past.
I dont invest myself in market, but I do keep a watch and do my own predictions just to amuse myself, have been correct many times in my predictions (like runup of 2007, runup of 2009, 2009 election result 1 day record bull market). It could be because it is easy to predict sitting on sidelines, but whatever makes me happy!
Anyways, so I thought to document my market predictions for 2010 here just so that I can check later and amuse myself more, so here you go-
  • Sensex is currently at 17,500
  • I think it will keep going further in next two months and by end of February will be at 18,500+
  • I think Market will crash around 5-10% on February 26th. Budget presentation will not go very well with market, and they will get disappointed and start taking out money for few days-
    DISINVESTMENT – market expects disinvestment news as always which I dont think will come up in budget presentation.
    HUGE SPENDING – government will keep up (or probably increase) huge spending on schemes like NREGA … that will not go very well with market.
If I were invested – I would have probably sold some of my stocks a week before 26th and brought back 1-2 days after 26th (if prediction doesnt come true, will probably be no profit no loss, but if prediction goes correct I would probably gain 5-10% in 1 week, very rare is that market will like budget and will go up – so on uptrend shares can be brought back immediately)
  • Anyways, sanity will resume in few days, so after few bumps of budget, Market will come back to its position of 18,500 and then again keep rising slowly.
  • Finally, I think Sensex will touch 20,000+ level by end of this year.

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Futurology – what should I wear?

This is actually not so rocket science – (wear warm clothes if it’s cold, wear less if it’s warm) – so you dont really need a software application for that.
Runner’s World Calculator Chooses the Right Outfit for Your Next Run – Clothing – Lifehacker: “If ‘run more regularly’ is on your tentative list of New Year’s resolutions, Runner’s World’s What Should I Wear? calculator can help you choose the appropriate running gear for your next outing.

You plug in the temperature, wind speed, and sky conditions, then add how you prefer to feel when you run (cool, in-between, warm). On the face, it’s a somewhat silly webapp (wear warm clothes if it’s cold, wear less if it’s warm). Still, for a lot of people, running is an extremely difficult habit to pick up, and if you’re starting your routine in the dead of winter, the last thing you want is to make your jog more difficult—so if you’re never quite comfortable once you’re in the middle of your jog, it might be worth a go.

What Should I Wear? [Runner’s World via Kyle Pott]”

But it still led me to think long term implications of applications like these on our daily life – I think the best part will be when all these applications will be integrated to each other like to have an application to recommend us what should we wear?
“What should I Wear” Software –
Are you fed up deciding which clothes to wear? … YES!
Have you wasted your valuable time deciding this ? (probably hours/days if you happen to be girl, no pun intended) …. YES! YES!

WORRY NO MORE, I GIVE YOU “what should I wear” SOFTWARE
A database/software storing name/type of all your clothes.
It also stores which clothes you wore on which days.
Plus, this application is integrated with the “weather” application also – so it will be damn easy for it to calculate and recommend “what should you wear” – based on the weather outside and also based on the data of which clothes you wore recently (so that you dont keep repeating wearing same thing again :) )
For boys – it will also recommend that these clothes need to goto laundry now (since you already wore them 10 times!! lol) … probably your wife can setup that configuration (number of max days to wear) – that will make her happy too!!
Hmmm … I should patent this idea!!!

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Remembering 26/11

Few poems I read while I was reading through my blog RSS.

Mushroom Clouds

Bullets at the station
Grenades at the Taj
Burning burning
symbols of Raj
Panic at the cafe
mayhem on the streets
talking heads
and their relatives
Mushroom clouds
Mushroom clouds
Mushroom clouds in the sky
Ballots at the poll booth
people of hate
they get reelected
such is our fate
patience wears thin
the rising din
the sad look in her eyes
Mushroom clouds
Mushroom clouds
Mushroom clouds in the westward sky

Mumbai, I Bequeath My Death

http://desicritics.org/2009/11/25/014804.php
Aaj ki raat bahut garam hawa chalti hai
Aaj ki raat na neend aayegi – Kaifi AazmiTonight a very hot wind is blowing
Tonight I won’t be able to sleep – Kaifi Aazmi
Photobucket
I bequeath my death to Mumbai, its many streets, its many lanes
And a sun that never rose on that day
There were no shadows from Bollywood hoardings
Neither from the ghettos of Kurla and Worli
Nor from the mortal divide of a stranger innocenceI bequeath my death to the beggar who died outside the Leopold Café
They shot him and his past; his coins fell from his present
They shot my past too at the narrow street next to it
Where I had once kissed a girl in a fevered evening
And dared again in a night of untoward violenceI bequeath my death to the fireflies at queen’s necklace
That never arrived that day
And to the single Kalashnikov bullet
That stared shamelessly at me
From a footprint in the darkI bequeath my death to many a death
Many a hurt
And the sky that bled
In a single shroud, a single season,
A single wordI bequeath my death to Mumbai poets
Kaifi Aazmi, Arun Kolatkar and many others
And those who died in their end thoughts
They died again and again
With me on that day.

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The wierd Forbes Power List 2009

By now many of you must have read about the wierdness of Forbes power list having Obama, Osama, Manmohan Singh, Dawood Ibrahim in same list! :)

If not sample this-
#1, 2, 3 goes to Presidents/PM of US, China, Russia respectively
#10 – B. Gates, #14 – W. Buffett
#36 – PM of India (Manmohan Singh)
#37 – Osama Bin Laden
#38 – Gilani (PM of Pakistan)
#39 – Dalai Lama
#44 – Mukesh Ambani
#45 – Oprah
#46 – PM of israel
#50 – Dawood Ibrahim
#55 – LN Mittal
#56 – Prez of France (Sarkozy)
#57 – Steve Jobs
#59 – Ratan Tata

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2010 – Year of Delhi

2010 will be an interesting year for Delhi.
There is a beeline of different infrastructure related projects completing next year before Commonwealth Games in Oct 2010 – that includes Delhi metro, Upgraded Airport, New set of Flyovers, New set of hotels etc.
And then hopefully the year will end with graceful hosting of commonwealth games. (although I am still concerned about our preparedness and security concerns – with so much threats coming from various militant groups) … But I am more than hopeful that we will be able to pull it through with elegance and by the end of 2010 we will have an event which the world will remember and will have a Delhi which will be much different from what we have now.
Although I am sitting miles away from all this, but I feel as excited about them and am particularly excited about the Delhi Metro project.
One reason for this could be that I have been following the progress of Delhi Metro half of my life :) – if I may say so. :)
The construction work of Delhi Metro was started 10 years back (around 1999), and has been planned in various phases. Currently we are in phase II of IV. Details can be read here.
But I have been following the progress of Delhi Metro even before the construction was started. I can still somewhat remember the news articles around 1995 in daily newspapers (TOI / HT) where it used to mention the project plans of Delhi Metro – with detailed maps of how it will be – and we all used to be all so dreamy still skeptical about all that.
At that time, the project was in very nascent / planning phase and I guess was getting clearance from the red tapes at various level of Government.
Flash Forward to Today – it was heartening to see the opening of Noida Line Today Morning.
Scripting yet another chapter in its history, the Delhi Metro today crossed the capital for the first time as a brand new train chugged into Noida.
The Metro’s move into the satellite township of Delhi is expected to bring a paradigm shift in the travelling habits of people in the National Capital Region.
The 13.1 km Yamuna Bank-Noida line was inaugurated by Union urban development minister S Jaipal Reddy in the presence of Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit and DMRC managing director E Sreedharan at the newly-built Akshardham station.
It brought back all those memories –
Those news articles in 1995 about project plan and the related skepticism and dreams.
Those thousand of articles we have read during last 10 years about the progress of Delhi Metro.
Last but not the least – the recent most “real” memories I have is from last year when I was in India and me and my wife used to drive from home to office watching the construction work in Noida in progress … the line which opened today.
And then, equally exciting is to read lineup for scheduled opening next year.
The opening of the Noida line marks the beginning of Phase II of Metro getting operational. Now, a new Metro line will open almost every month till the Commonwealth Games.

Aaaaaaah! … those lines are music to my ears.
So it is very obvious that I will definitely keep following all this progress – this is truly history in making and I dont want to miss anything. I dont even want to blink from now till end of 2010.
Lastly, it is probably human nature for me to wait for the line nearest to my place to get completed – that is the “Violet Line” connecting to my neighborhood in south delhi – Badarpur 😀
In June 2010, the 4.91km stretch on the Badarpur line from Sarita Vihar to Badarpur will be commissioned. The rest of the Badarpur line (15.25 km) connecting Sarita Vihar to Central Secretariat will open in September 2010.

So, once again … Congratulations to all my fellow delhites … and best wishes for 2010.

PS – the image source of Delhi Metro with Giant Statue of Hanuman is HINDU’s website

This image of the Delhi Metro running against the backdrop of a tall idol of Hanuman has come to be identified as Delhi’s defining picture in the recent years. It is often cited as the point of confluence of Tradition and Development in the Urban Area. Photo: V. V. Krishnan

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Total waste of Time – I

This post is a total waste of time, so dont read! :)
Hmm, you are still reading!? … anyways, dont complain as you were warned :)
So I was watching Das Ka Dum on TV and this show ended with a famous Bollywood Song Tama Tama Loge (from 1990 movie Thanedar).
This song, as many of you know, was one of the most famous song of 1990. I am sure many of you must be in school like me and used to dance in your bedroom/bathroom on this song. :)
So, anyways, the point is that it brought back lots of memories from my childhood :) – so my obvious reaction (which is very obvious to my closest friends/family) is to search out this song on youtube to listen to the song and watch the video… in fact I am listening to this song – on repeat – while I am composing this blog post. 😐
Above video is so 80ish :) … the disco dance routine, which was a characteristic of 80’s “item numbers”. I wonder how’ll we look back at todays films/songs … say 20 years from now. I will probably have today’s post as reference, 20 years from now :)
It also reminded me of another song – Jumma Chumma De De (literary meaning Jumma Kiss Me) – which was a copy of this Tama Tam Song – or vice versa… we dont know which one ripped off which one.
In fact, there was huge controversy during that time on these songs of copying each other.
I think I also remember “some news” of these songs ripping off a “foreign song”. But I never heard about that song till now. So, I googled it out now (naturally, as you know me) and found that song is “Tama Tama Loge” by someone called Mory Kante – whom again I never heard of till now.
So, after listening to this song, I was thinking –
A) It is height of hypocrisy for those music directors to blame each other for ripping off their song … when the reality is they ripped off it from third person’s song.
B) I dont mind it them stealing, because both of these songs are my fav … I would have never known about Mory Kante unless these songs were there.
C) Thanks to internet, it is so easy to find useless facts like this … within minutes :)
Any thoughts?
PS – I found one song of Mory Kante that I have heard of before … It’s YEKE YEKE.
Updated later –
This is becoming more and more interesting, I just noticed the “making of Tama Tama Loge” video on youtube … HA! … I never thought someone have making of Tama Tama Loge and someday I will be seeing it.
It’s such a lame video! … LOL :) … I have no words to describe.

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Is Recession Ending?

That is what the economists and financial experts are saying all across the world … that the recession is ending (although they are saying that still recovery may take 2-3 more years)I think it may not get worse but it will remain this way for next 2-3 years, before the real recovery begins.Unemployment figures of USA in my opinion is one of the best ways to measure how the recession thing is going.Unemployment data of USA was published yesterday (for July 2009), it shows number of job cuts has drastically reduced for the first time in last one year.Unemployment rate was being predicted to keep getting worse till it reaches 10% … however for the first time in last one year unemployment rate is taking a U-turn (it has come down to 9.4% from last month 9.5%)However, as far as I have understood, the recession always go up/down/up/down … much like a sinusoidal wave.If you see the graph of US enemployment history (see below) you will see even during the recession there are some phases of recovery – then again more recession comes – then again some recovery — so I guess that is how it will go for next 2-3 years in USA … much like a sinusoidal graph.It will definitely affect everybody’s life … so let us see how it goes.US Unemployment History


US Unemployment rate

US – number of job cuts per month

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“Three Mile Island” incident of India

I read about three mile island incident couple of months ago and how that one incident stopped the whole nuclear power initiative of being a major source of power generation in USA.

When I was reading that – I realized the similarity between 70s of USA and current phase of India. It’s an interesting phase for a country which has initiated many infrastructure related projects and is very optimistic about those projects playing a big role in their growth story.
So, a three mile island project of USA in my opinion could be what “Delhi Metro” or “Golden Quadrilateral” or “Dream of being energy independent” is to India.
One more thing I realized was that USA has very stringent safety laws about these infrastructure projects (i guess those must be in 70s too) for everything, especially as compared to India. So – in spite of all those measures in place – the three mile accident happened!
Compare that to current situation in India where thousand of infrastructure projects are undergoing in all direction. The safety measures I dont know are how much stringent and how much followed. So isnt probability of a three mile similar incident happening in India now is much more that than that happening in US in 70s?? (I can only pray that such an event doesnt happen and our government has learned from all such infra accidents, including the one which we had too…like Bhopal Gas Tragedy) But no matter how much precaution the government takes, I guess a three mile incident is waiting to happen in a country of more than a billion people working in all directions.
It is just a matter of time – maybe in 1 year, in 5 years or in 10 years – but I am not sure if it is avoidable in these scenarios.
Here I do not mean a “nuclear accident” per se … but I mean any kind of infrustructure related accident … like the one which happened today in Delhi Metro.
After such an event, manytimes our focus is on the immediate loss of lifes which is undoubtedly natural and important … However, in my opinion, one big loss is the repercurssion of such event. The aftermath effects on the project – like the loss of resources. The loss of confidence in that project – both by goverment (who is paying for it) and people like me (who are going to use that infrastructure). The loss of a dream of a better future and facing reality again that maybe things will go back to where it was on the first place.
To effectively demonstrate those repercursions, read below excerpt of the effect of three mile accident on nuclear industry in US, taken from wikipedia.
Also, on a closing note – I just wish something like doesnt happen on any infrastructure related project in India.

Effect on nuclear power industry

Global history of the use of nuclear power. The Three Mile Island accident is one of the factors cited for the decline of new reactor construction.

According to the IAEA, the Three Mile Island accident was a significant turning point in the global development of nuclear power [49]. From 1963 to 1979, the number of reactors under construction globally increased every year except 1971 and 1978. However, following the event, the number of reactors under construction declined every year from 1980 to 1998. Many similar Babcock and Wilcox reactors on order were canceled — in total, 51 American nuclear reactors were canceled from 1980 to 1984.[50]

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Manmohan Singh is King!! :)

I will start this post quoting last lines from my last post –

PS – as a closing note, I feel UPA (congress) will have good majority, and it will be less chaotic than last time… and congress will be in a better position to rule. (I am thinking 230 seats for UPA, plus 30 support from outside) …. let’s see if my prediction comes close to the real thing on saturday/sunday.

It is 2:30am at USA (12pm in India), I am watching CNN-IBN Election 2009 Live Coverage + following NDTV votemap and trying to understand and observe the trend in election results of 2009.

This is truly history in making and a historical “Judgement day” for India, I cannot afford to sleep today.

As I expected it looks like UPA is leading on 240 seats, and it is almost confirmed to have support from 4th front… and hence confirmed to form government.

(Updated@ 5/16 2:30pm – It is now 12 hours since I am following the results, it is now 2:30 pm here in US and 12am in India, I made above comment yesterday night after which I went to sleep at 6-7am in the morning.

At this moment, all results are almost out and looks like UPA will get 260 seats, just 10 seats short of majority, which as we all know will be easily fillled up by others/4th front … superb!! amazing!!)

I am jubilant!! The last time I was this happy was maybe a year ago when Left tried to topple the government on issue of Nuclear Energy and congress came back stronger.

There are many things that I am pretty much excited about seeing this result and the trend following –

  • Leadership” is now an important factor to win Indian Elections!

    In fact, I will not be wrong if I go to the extent to say that it is the single most factor to win elections in India now
    • 1st Example – In my opinion, BJP won in 1999, only because BJP led NDA had a good leadership in terms of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. (as opposed to Congress of that time who were fighting among themselves, let alone think about leading a country like India)
    • 2nd Example – fast forward to 2009, Congress pulled all its act together in last 10 years and now they have a good leader – Manmohan Singh and not only that Congress has a young/clean/likeable future leader “Rahul Gandhi” which as we all know is going to play bigger role in coming times.

      • I think “leadership” plays a very critical factor now in Indian Voter’s subconscious, although it may not be very much obvious.
  • India is turning out to be a very unique democratic system of Bi-Polar but still multiparty system
    • This is second most interesting thing!! … this is opposed to strictly biparty system in USA or themultiparty system (of chaos & coalition) in India we saw for last 10 years.
    • To substantiate this, we can clearly see Conrgess and BJP comings as the two major parties in the election results on all 2-3 past elections… and all other smaller parties sticking to them.

      • So, unless either of these two biggies mess up themselves in big way, they are gonna rule us in times to come.
      • I predict that these two parties systems will continue to come in power alternatively every 5-10 years from now onwards. (depending on performance of government)
      • This arrangement will keep the ruling government on toes and make them perform and make them inclusive and not try to divide India.
    • In my opinion, it is good that we dont have clearly demarcated two party system in India because this way, in current system, if both the parties are not performing or not providing leadership required … India can go ahead and check any 3rd alternative, 4th alternative and so on … that is what we did around 1998 and although the result was disaster but I think that gave Indian political parties the much needed shock therapy to improve and reinvent themselves.
  • Good Governance and Development is In + Left (dumb) ideologies are out (Communism is out?)
    • I was expecting (and hoping) for a result like this, where left will be thrown out. It shows many things –
      • India will not let party or people whose only mandate is to keep blackmailing the government, especially on development issues. (Indian voters will not let them get away with it.)
      • Energy reforms are here to stay. Nuclear Energy is the future.
      • Development of India needs to be top of mandate for any party who wants to come to power
        • Another example for this is Nitish Kumar who has sweeped Bihar, whom I am hearing is doing good job in Bihar..
      • WB sweep out of Left is the single most surprising thing I have seen in Indian politics ever!!!!

Lastly, as I was searching youtube to find a tribute/fan video on Dr. Manmohan Singh, I couldnt find any. So, I created one tribute video of my own. Enjoy!!


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