Predicted Growth of India (based on current GDP and GDP Growth Rate)

Last year I read a Goldman Sach’s report about rise of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India China) Economies … which has some very optimistic predictions for BRIC economies in terms of contribution of these economies to world’s GDP. (Lately I read new version of that document and it has taken this optimism even further).

The idea behind this report is very simple … take the GDP’s of all countries today, and also the GDP Growth rate of all the countries …. then calculate or forecast the future GDP assuming that current growth will hold in years to come. (I think Goldman Sach has not taken current GDP growth rate, but they have taken an optimistic growth rate, eg- India’s current growth rate is around 8-9% but i think they have taken 6-7% of growth rate for India.)

Whatsover, they also have a kind of timeline graph, where they show how and when will BRIC economies overtake current Big economies (that is one of my favourite parts of the report). However that chart was not very sufficient to me because I wanted more details about India … when will India move up the GDP ranking?? … what will be the Ranking and economic situation in the year India moves up the rank?? … things like that …

Since I love to play with spreadsheets, so I made my own spreadsheet calculating the future GDP of all top economies and what will they look like in the year to come. (based on current GDP, and current GDP growth rate) . Maybe it will help me in keeping track how much of this dream actually happens and when will it happen.

This model / calculation obviously assumes that there would be no major change in the “general scenarios” in the world causing any imbalance. Those changes which can and which will impact these predictions are things like – mad Indian politics, changes in immigration policies and Free trade agreements between countries (basically something which will imbalance business situations between countries) and last but not the least could be some kind of world wars etc.

Anyways enough talks, let us see the data now…. Following is how current situation looks like ….

(All GDP figures are in Million US Dollars.)

CURRENT (YEAR 2008) … India is at Rank 12.

1	United States	13843825
2	Japan	4383762
3	Germany	3322147
4	China (PRC)	3250827
5	United Kingdom	2772570
6	France	2560255
7	Italy	2104666
8	Spain	1438959
9	Canada	1432140
10	Brazil	1313590
11	Russia	1289582
12	India	1098945

Current rate of GDP Growth is …. (1.0220 means 2.2 %)

United States	1.0220
Japan	1.0190
Germany	1.0260
China (PRC)	1.1140
United Kingdom	1.0290
France	1.0180
Italy	1.0190
Spain	1.0380
Canada	1.0270
Brazil	1.0540
Russia	1.0810
India	1.0960

AND HENCE …. Here is the future …

YEAR 2013 … India will beat Spain, Brazil and Canada and India will take Rank # 9

1	United States	15435140.24
2	China (PRC)	5577246.15
3	Japan	4816348.32
4	Germany	3777075.35
5	United Kingdom	3198596.03
6	France	2799123.84
7	Italy	2312352.85
8	Russia	1903607.61
9	India	1737915.79
10	Spain	1733944.48
11	Brazil	1708688.47
12	Canada	1636204.91

YEAR 2017 … India will beat Italy and take Rank # 8.

1	United States	16838917.26
2	China (PRC)	8589355.46
3	Japan	5192955.77
4	Germany	4185478.28
5	United Kingdom	3586087.59
6	France	3006167.84
7	Russia	2599442.46
8	India	2507673.24
9	Italy	2493163.97
10	Brazil	2108751.15
11	Spain	2012911.13
12	Canada	1820201.5

YEAR 2020 … India will beat Russia and France and take Rank 6.

1	United States	17974915.21
2	China (PRC)	11874522.32
3	Japan	5494613.84
4	Germany	4520507.3
5	United Kingdom	3907212.37
6	India	3301433.91
7	Russia	3283653.25
8	France	3171440.43
9	Italy	2637991.51
10	Brazil	2469148.24
11	Spain	2251213.38
12	Canada	1971654.43

YEAR 2023 … India will beat United Kingdom and take Rank 5.

1	United States	19187550.58
2	China (PRC)	16416165.46
3	Japan	5813795.18
4	Germany	4882353.91
5	India	4346445.81
6	United Kingdom	4257093.03
7	Russia	4147958.21
8	France	3345799.35
9	Brazil	2891139.16
10	Italy	2791232.06
11	Spain	2517727.49
12	Canada	2135709.25

YEAR 2025 … China will beat USA and take Rank 1.

1	China (PRC)	20372395.67
2	United States	20041089.58
3	Japan	6036818.18
4	India	5221020.25
5	Germany	5139536.78
6	Russia	4847142.19
7	United Kingdom	4507584.64
8	France	3467332.17
9	Brazil	3211812.76
10	Italy	2898306.52
11	Spain	2712710.38
12	Canada	2252594.48

YEAR 2027 … India will beat Japan and Germany and take Rank 3.

1	China (PRC)	25282061.54
2	United States	20932597.41
3	India	6271573.06
4	Japan	6268396.56
5	Russia	5664181.32
6	Germany	5410267.02
7	United Kingdom	4772815.43
8	France	3593279.54
9	Brazil	3568054.18
10	Italy	3009488.45
11	Spain	2922793.53
12	Canada	2375876.73

YEAR 2045 … India will beat USA and take Rank 2.

1	China (PRC)	176500491.52
2	India	32656261.19
3	United States	30969860.23
4	Russia	23014399.04
5	Brazil	9195226.6
6	Japan	8796132.77
7	Germany	8587587.87
8	United Kingdom	7984567.3
9	Spain	5719400.38
10	France	4953943.04
11	Italy	4223067.21
12	Canada	3837884.39

I will be 60 years by 2045 …. and actually that is the one of the main reason I thought to publish this blog entry today. (life is accidental, hence I can just wish that I’ll be alive by then to see all of this happen through my own eyes.)

PS –

Even if India reaches rank 2 by 2045, that will not change anything … because we are very down in Per Capita Income rankings ….. so, america and european countries will keep rich even then and India will be poor even then.

But that is a individualistic (or selfish) approach to look at it. As an Indian, it will definitely make me feel proud if we happen to do what is predicted above.